Political analysts are torn over Donald Trump’s chances in the upcoming 2020 elections.
Trevor Noah is arguably not an expert. But what he has to say is entertaining – with just a hint of truth, at least enough to make you think.
Noah isn’t one to shy away from making light of serious social and political topics.
In last Tuesday’s episode, The Daily Show host talked about what he thinks is Donald Trump’s huge advantage in 2020.
Wait for it…
According to Noah, it’s Trump’s ability to “create a new reality” and continue “right through” after making obvious and sometimes embarrassing mistakes.
This advantage, Noah says, will prove effective against Trump’s opponent, former vice president Joe Bidden.
He referred to Biden’s mistakes and verbal stumbles during his Pittsburgh campaign rally the previous day.
Noah noted Biden’s mispronunciations and lack of energy, an obvious difference to Trump’s talent of rifting convincingly, even making bonker points to his riled up audience.
Knowing Trump, he’s bound to cook up some interesting attacks on Biden, who he has already nicknamed “Sleepy Joe.”
Noah has a few ideas if you care to watch the clip below:
Comedy aside, can Trump really win the 2020 elections?
The president loves highlighting one advantage he thinks he has over the 2020 presidential elections:
The “GREAT” Economy.
And his confidence isn’t unfounded.
The economy is booming.
Jobs and stock market numbers have consistently been strong since 2017.
So yes, unemployment is low. The market is up. Gas is cheaper than it has been lately. And almost every electoral model out there predicts he’ll do a 2020 wipe out.
Reporter Tina Nguyen of The Hive explains how:
“These models follow a school of political thought that eschews the horse-race aspects of polling and political prediction—character traits, scandals, fund-raising hauls, and so forth—and argues that the economic landscape will ultimately drive voters’ decisions.”
Yale economist Ray Fair, one of the few analysts who predicted Trump’s 2016 win, thinks the same. He believes Trump may win.
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It would be close, yes, but he believes it will be a decisive victory – 54 to 46%.
“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy—and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election—that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin.”
If the economy is the main predictor, Trump has high chances of winning.
However, this seems the only accomplishment Trump likes to brag about.
The president recently tweeted a challenge to whichever Democrat candidate faces him next year, saying:
I believe it will be Crazy Bernie Sanders vs. Sleepy Joe Biden as the two finalists to run against maybe the best Economy in the history of our Country (and MANY other great things)! I look forward to facing whoever it may be. May God Rest Their Soul!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 17, 2019
But would it really be that easy?
Perhaps not. The economy may be booming, but voters don’t seem to credit Trump for it.
The latest Gallup weekly tracking poll sees Trump’s approval rate at only 45%, with 51% disapproving of Trump’s presidency.
Trump is also the first and only president in Gallup’s history that hasn’t had a job approval rating above 50% – not once.
CNN politics reporter Chris Cillizza adds that it:
“… suggests that while polling suggests voters do believe the economy is doing well, they simply don’t give Trump the credit for it that they might give another president.
Or that, if they do give Trump some credit for the economy, other things matter more to them when considering whether Trump is doing a good job.”
It’s also important to note his weak approval rates at certain states. Particularly the one he disregarded in his 2016 elections – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Those numbers are still consistently low. In February, Gallup finds that approval ratings in all three states hinge only at 42%.
Either way, none of these things could predict a landslide victory for Trump. It will most likely be a close call.
Yet there’s still enough time until 2020 for that boat to be rocked.