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Trevor Noah: Donald Trump has a “huge advantage” in 2020

Political analysts are torn over Donald Trump’s chances in the upcoming 2020 elections.

Trevor Noah is arguably not an expert. But what he has to say is entertaining – with just a hint of truth, at least enough to make you think.

Noah isn’t one to shy away from making light of serious social and political topics.

In last Tuesday’s episode, The Daily Show host talked about what he thinks is Donald Trump’s huge advantage in 2020.

Wait for it…

According to Noah, it’s Trump’s ability to “create a new reality” and continue “right through” after making obvious and sometimes embarrassing mistakes.

This advantage, Noah says, will prove effective against Trump’s opponent, former vice president Joe Bidden.

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He referred to Biden’s mistakes and verbal stumbles during his Pittsburgh campaign rally the previous day.

Noah noted Biden’s mispronunciations and lack of energy, an obvious difference to Trump’s talent of rifting convincingly, even making bonker points to his riled up audience.

Knowing Trump, he’s bound to cook up some interesting attacks on Biden, who he has already nicknamed “Sleepy Joe.”

Noah has a few ideas if you care to watch the clip below:

Comedy aside, can Trump really win the 2020 elections?

The president loves highlighting one advantage he thinks he has over the 2020 presidential elections:

The “GREAT” Economy.

And his confidence isn’t unfounded.

The economy is booming.

Jobs and stock market numbers have consistently been strong since 2017.

So yes, unemployment is low. The market is up. Gas is cheaper than it has been lately. And almost every electoral model out there predicts he’ll do a 2020 wipe out.

Reporter Tina Nguyen of The Hive explains how:

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“These models follow a school of political thought that eschews the horse-race aspects of polling and political prediction—character traits, scandals, fund-raising hauls, and so forth—and argues that the economic landscape will ultimately drive voters’ decisions.”

Yale economist Ray Fair, one of the few analysts who predicted Trump’s 2016 win, thinks the same. He believes Trump may win.

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It would be close, yes, but he believes it will be a decisive victory – 54 to 46%.

He says:

“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy—and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election—that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin.”

If the economy is the main predictor, Trump has high chances of winning.

However, this seems the only accomplishment Trump likes to brag about.

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The president recently tweeted a challenge to whichever Democrat candidate faces him next year, saying:

But would it really be that easy?

Perhaps not. The economy may be booming, but voters don’t seem to credit Trump for it.

The latest Gallup weekly tracking poll sees Trump’s approval rate at only 45%, with 51% disapproving of Trump’s presidency.

Trump is also the first and only president in Gallup’s history that hasn’t had a job approval rating above 50% – not once.

CNN politics reporter Chris Cillizza adds that it:

“… suggests that while polling suggests voters do believe the economy is doing well, they simply don’t give Trump the credit for it that they might give another president.

Or that, if they do give Trump some credit for the economy, other things matter more to them when considering whether Trump is doing a good job.”

It’s also important to note his weak approval rates at certain states. Particularly the one he disregarded in his 2016 elections – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Those numbers are still consistently low. In February, Gallup finds that approval ratings in all three states hinge only at 42%.

Either way, none of these things could predict a landslide victory for Trump. It will most likely be a close call.

Yet there’s still enough time until 2020 for that boat to be rocked.


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Notable replies

  1. ACD says:

    The main points of the article appear to be:

    1. The US economy is thriving.
    2. Biden is likely to be Trump’s only challenger at the 2020 election.
    3. It is noteworthy that Trevor Noah acknowledges Trump’s strengths as a candidate.
    4. Trump is likely to be reelected but it is difficult to predict.

    The US economy is thriving in a superficial way based upon a perusal of BLS statistics. The statistic most cited is employment which is reported to be at a historic high, though proportionately fewer are participating in the labor force since 1997 when participation for adults aged 25-65 years was in excess of 80%. It is now about 70% due to those aged over 54 dropping out of the labor force at an increasing rate because they are not finding employment. About 3% of all counted as employed are not able to find full-time work, and median real wages (about $40K annually at current levels) have not increased in the last 50 years.

    Stock market prices have been rising while corporate earnings have been falling. This is made possible by the Fed’s quantitative easing and corporate stock buy-backs funded by high levels of corporate debt.

    source: What Could Go Wrong?

    “As Bloomberg reports, in a particularly striking sign, the Fed said the businesses with the biggest existing debt loads are also the ones taking on the riskiest loans.”
    Fed Warns Valuations “Elevated”, Investor Risk Appetite “High”, Risky Debt Biggest Worry

    “For now, the economy walks a very thin line along the cliff’s edge. Unless you believe central banks can stay at the 0 bound interest rate range forever and never cause a reduction in a currency’s purchasing power, intractable inflation is inevitable. Once achieved, it will produce an interest rate surge from all-time lows that will engender an equally disastrous plunge in asset prices. Any fixed income instrument and equity that the government is not actively purchasing will crash in price. This is exactly what occurred in October of 1987, where the Dow lost 23% of its value in one day. But unfortunately, the carnage should be much worse than 1987 given the relative level of debt and overvaluation of equities that exists today.”
    Global Bond Bubble’s Ultimate Culmination

    “The U.S. corporate debt market will suffer massive losses if the world’s biggest economy falls into recession, said Steve Eisman, the Neuberger Berman Group money manager who famously predicted the collapse of subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis.”
    U.S. Recession Would Spur ‘Massive’ Corporate Bond Losses, Eisman Says

    DeutscheBank is especially a problem:

    “Troubles affecting Deutsche Bank and other EU lenders could easily explode into financial contagion if markets decide to turn away from these banks à la Lehman Brothers. For American business leaders and political leaders, the festering problems in European banks are a source of potential risk that could cause significant economic problems for all of us.”
    When Deutsche Bank’s Crisis Becomes Our Crisis

    The conclusion that Trump is likely to be reelected seems to be the implied consequence of the supposedly thriving economy, Biden’s inability to mount a credible challenge, and Trevor Noah’s sophomoric support. In my opinion, the reason Trump will be elected is because his supporters are about half the electorate and will vote while his detractors are disorganized and will fail again to motivate their supporters to vote in sufficient numbers in enough voting districts.

    And then there is this from keen political observer Dick Morris:

    … and this:

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Written by Genefe Navilon

Genefe Navilon is a writer, poet, and blogger. She graduated with a degree in Mass Communications at the University of San Jose Recoletos. Her poetry blog, Letters To The Sea, currently has 18,000 followers. Her work has been published in different websites and poetry book anthologies. She divides her time between traveling, writing, and working on her debut poetry book.

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